Election 2018

A new Quinnipiac poll reveals that Americans are currently 12 percentage points more likely to vote for a Democrat (51%) in their congressional district than a Republican (39%) —  which is good news for the Democrats. Republicans will take solace by pointing out that the polls had Hillary winning the presidency — which obviously she didn’t.

However, the 2016 polls on average (HC +3.3%) were close to the popular vote (HC +2.1%). She lost because of the intricacies of the Electoral College. And no poll had her anywhere near being 12% ahead.

But let’s move on from the headline and dig into the numbers. Women and minorities are far more in favor of Democrats, while white men are the GOP’s bedrock. In fact, they are the only demographic that favors Republicans. All of this comes as no surprise. However, the data does show an oddity.

Politics and Age

It is common wisdom that older Americans are more conservative than younger. This time the common wisdom is wrong. While 18 to 34-year-olds are the most liberal (+16% pro-Democrat), 35 to 49-year-olds are the least liberal (+2%) By comparison, seniors come in at +6%.

When it comes to Republican congressional job approval the overall number is a dismal 27%. But again the Republican support is greatest among the 35-49 group (31%)

Democratic congressional approval is an equally lackluster 30%, with the lowest support among 35-49s (24%)

Abortion and Age

For pro-choice advocates, the good news is that overall 64% of Americans favor abortion in most if not all circumstances. Again the youngest voters are most liberal (75% for), while support declines among 40-somethings to 61%. The middle-aged are 66% pro-choice. While the old come in at 58%.

American’s think overturning Roe vs. Wade would be a bad thing by 66% to 23%. With the 34-49s again most likely to think it would be a good thing.

I can’t tell you why there should be this conservative bulge in the middle of the age range. But it may relate to the ‘greed is good 1980s’ spilling into a fascination with a booming tech stock market in the 1990s. I welcome your insight.

But let’s move on.

Trump’s Impeachment

Americans are against it 55% to 39%

Trump and the Media

The majority of Americans (56% to 36%) disapprove of the media’s treatment of Trump. This stat correlates closely with age. With the youngest voters the most disenchanted.

But Trump shouldn’t celebrate. Respondents take an even dimmer view of Trump’s treatment of the press — disapproving by 65% to 32%.

When it comes to who tells the truth, the media beats Trump by 54% to 34%.

And his ‘the media is the enemy of the people’ claim is rejected by 71% to 21%.

The Kavanaugh Nomination

People are equally divided on his confirmation — 40% say ‘yes’, 41% say ‘no’.

On the other hand, a clear majority say he would make the court ‘too conservative’ —  45% to 38%.


Conservatives are losing abortion as a wedge issue. And while the poll didn’t ask about guns and gay marriage, other polls suggest that they also are losing their vitality as conservative ‘get out the vote’ motivators.

The news is generally good for Democrats. Their increased number of women and minority candidates makes it harder for Republicans to claim that they are taking their base for granted.

Democrats will have to go all out to get the youngest voters registered and to the polls — especially as this is a mid-term election.

They shouldn’t make impeachment a national plank, but they shouldn’t dissuade local candidates from making it an issue if it works in their district.

They can’t just be the anti-Trump party. They need to have a message. Which should be easy enough. Be proud they are for universal healthcare. Get behind a minimum wage boost. Hammer home economic opportunity for all. Keep the message short and punchy. Think bumper-sticker.

And they should forget about non-college educated white men. Those poor souls are lost in the woods.


Beto O’Rourke Embraces Trump’s Impeachment.

July 18, 2018

Democratic Party leadership is terrified that impeachment talk will galvanize the Republican base in the November elections. A wave of young liberals — epitomized by Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez — have ignored this concern. However, a solidly Democratic seat in New York City is hardly a bellwether for the country. But the US Senate election in Texas is. Texas used to be reliably conservative. Ted […]

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Trump Wonders Why Anyone Would Vote for Democrats in 2018. Here’s Why.

January 1, 2018

There is a new desperation in Trump’s tweets. Let’s consider one: Donald J. Trump‏ @realDonaldTrump Why would smart voters want to put Democrats in Congress in 2018 Election when their policies will totally kill the great wealth created during the months since the Election. People are much better off now not to mention ISIS, VA, Judges, […]

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Democrats Need to Speak Fighting Words. It’s Politics, not a Debate.

December 17, 2017

An old political joke has it that all liberal bumper stickers end with the same words — “continued on next bumper sticker”. Conservatives may not be right, but they are concise — and memorable. Who can forget “death panels”, “death taxes”. “job-killing” or, on a more optimistic note,  “job creators”? Now let’s look at how Democrats […]

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How Democrats can Win: Five Easy Pieces of Advice.

June 23, 2017

Democrats are getting hammered. And the excuses are flying. The “we’re losing less badly than before and besides it’s a Republican district” rationale for losing congressional races is a consolation prize where consolation is meaningless. In politics, all that counts is winning. And until the Democrats get some checks in the ‘W’ column they are irrelevant. What do Democrats […]

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Trump, Russia, Flynn, Comey, Pence & the 2018 Election.

May 16, 2017

Trump defends his blabbing state secrets to the Russians by saying he has the right to say what he said. Which is to miss the point. Just because you have the right doesn’t mean you should. The Westboro Baptist Church has the right to say what they say. Predictably, Fox News is doing yeoman’s work […]

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